UCAS Clearing Stats Show a Fall in Acceptances

Key findings

- Total yearly acceptances as of JCQ results day are down by 2.6%

- Acceptances from non-EU students declined for the first time in at least 8 years (-1.4%)

- All tariff providers reported a fall in total acceptances

- Non-EU acceptances declined at higher tariff providers but rose for medium and lower tariff providers

JCQ Results Day

As of JCQ results day, the latest data available from UCAS shows a year-on-year decline in total acceptances of 2.6%. Whilst grade inflation was a contributing factor to some of the trends reported during the Covid years, grade deflation will have impacted these statistics. With more students missing their expected grades, there is likely to be a greater reliance on Clearing compared to recent years, which will also partially explain the decline reported so far in the cycle.

The chart below highlights the year-on-year change in acceptances by domicile, with declines reported across the board. Most notably, there has been a 1.4% fall in acceptances from non-EU students, the first yearly decline reported at this stage for at least 8 years. Brexit still continues to play a role too, with EU numbers falling by a further 7.2%. As a result, there were 69.5% fewer acceptances from this group at this stage compared to 2019.

Source: UCAS

Looking at the key Chinese demographic, acceptances from these students fell by 2.6% YoY, following a decline of 2.2% in 2022.

Splitting the data by tariff provider, those deemed as "higher" have continued to outperform the rest. However, numbers at this group were still down YoY, falling by 1.8%. This compares to declines of 2.7% and 3.2% at medium and lower tariff providers respectively.

Source: UCAS

Isolating non-EU students, a key group for PBSA, at this stage in the cycle higher tariff providers have underperformed. Acceptances of non-EU students have fallen by 3.4% year-on-year, whilst lower tariff providers have reported a jump of 6.3%.

Source: UCAS

It's worth reiterating that these figures will continue to evolve in the days and weeks ahead, however, they provide a useful insight into how lower grades could impact recruitment this year. For those students that going through Clearing, accommodation will play an important role, possibly more than ever, given the well-reported shortages in some locations.

For more information about our proprietary, highly granular data covering the UK student accommodation contact the StuRents Research team today. Or book a demo of our Data Portal to find out how you can have up-to-the-minute university housing insights at your fingertips.