Exploring the 2024 UCAS June Deadline Data
Following data released by UCAS covering applications made by the June 2024 deadline, StuRents has analysed the information to highlight the key trends.
Source: UCAS
After rapid growth between 2006 and 2010, UK applicant numbers have fluctuated. As of the June 2024 deadline, UK numbers are down year-on-year and have been in decline since 2021. Overall, the number of non-EU applicants has increased steadily since 2006. However, as of the June deadline, 2024 is the first year since 2016 with a year-on-year decrease. EU applicant numbers have also fallen year-on-year, continuing the downward trend reported since Brexit.
Source: UCAS
Digging deeper into the UK numbers, applications from 18-year-olds have generally been on the rise since 2010, with a period of particularly rapid growth between 2020 and 2022. Numbers have declined overall since then, albeit with a year-on-year uptick of 1,840 applications in 2024. Despite this uptick, the proportion of the 18-year-old population who made an application is down by 0.2% year-on-year and 2.2% since 2022.
Source: UCAS
Looking at UK applications from older age groups, indexed since 2010, there have been considerable decreases in numbers across all age groups. As per the June deadline data, there were over 24,000 fewer applications from 21-24-year-olds than there were in 2010.
Source: UCAS
After a period of rapid growth, applicant numbers from China have cooled since 2022. The June deadline shows a small year-on-year increase of 160, which is still down by 540 compared to 2022. Numbers from India follow a similar pattern, remaining stable but showing a slight decline of 170 applications since their peak in 2023.
Source: UCAS
Looking at other non-EU countries’ numbers, some interesting and varied patterns emerge. Applications from Nigeria have fallen dramatically, with a year-on-year decrease of 2,450 reported, which equates to almost 50% fewer applicants. As a result, applications from UAE and Türkiye, which have both been steadily on the rise since 2006, have now overtaken Nigeria. The decline in application numbers from Hong Kong since 2021 has helped the USA secure its position as third for non-EU applications, behind China and India.
The latest data from UCAS highlights the changing demand patterns in the UK, with implications for accommodation providers. China remains a key demographic for PBSA in particular and undergraduate numbers remain healthy. Those operators more heavily exposed to demographics such as India should be wary of recent declines, while increases from the US and Türkiye could lead to localised opportunities going forward.
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