UCAS Application Deadline: Jan 2025 & 2024 End of Cycle Data

Key findings for 2025 cycle applications:

• Total applications are up and mainly driven by 3.1% non-EU growth; UK and EU applications are up by 0.6% and 0.3% respectively
• Applications from UK 18 year olds are up by 2.1% this year, representing 67.1% of all UK applications
• Applications from Chinese students up by 8.9%, the second year in a row after a 2023 dip; Indian applications are down for a second year (-0.3%); USA up by 11.7% and Turkey up by 23.5%
• Higher tariff providers up for both UK (3.8%) and non-EU (6.5%) students; medium tariff are fluctuating, up with UK by 0.7% but down with non-EU by 1.9%; lower tariff providers are struggling with both (non-EU:-10.1%, UK: -2.7%) and an overall downward trend

Key findings for 2024 end of cycle:

• For applicants vs acceptances, UK students are stable with consistently 80+% of applications leading to acceptances
• With non-EU, fewer applications are leading to acceptances: 46.9% in 2024 vs a high of 54.0% in 2020
• Trends for individual universities vary - some reporting strong growth (Birmingham), while others reporting fluctuations or declining acceptances

Chart 1: Total Applicants by Main Domicile, 2013-2025

Source: UCAS

This year shows another increase in overall applicants, after a downward trend from 2021 to 2023. The overall increase is driven again by non-EU applications with 3.1% year-on-year (YoY) growth. Applications from UK and EU students are marginally up by 0.6% and 0.3% YoY respectively. For EU students, this continues a trend of limited growth or change since the sharp drop in EU applications from 2020 to 2021 due to the impact of Brexit.

Chart 2: Applicants by Age, 2013-2025

Source: UCAS

Looking at applications by age group, applications from UK 18 year olds are up by 2.1% YoY, representing the second year of positive growth after a 2023 dip. UK 18 year olds are the largest application age group in the UK, with other age groups remaining steady or declining.

Chart 3: Applicants by Country, 2013-2025

Source: UCAS

Applications from China once again dwarf those from other countries, with numbers up by 8.9% YoY for a second consecutive year of growth since a 2023 dip. Hong Kong has been steadily declining since 2021, with India and UAE flatlining since around 2023 with little change this year. USA and Turkey are both showing strong YoY growth at 11.7% and 23.5% respectively. While Nigeria has previously shown strong growth in the 2020-2023 period, applications declined sharply in 2024, with little change in 2025.

Chart 4: UK Applicant Growth by Tariff, 2013-2025

Source: UCAS

Splitting the data by tariff and focusing on UK applicants, higher tariff providers showed strong growth of 3.8% from 2024 to 2025, with medium tariff up a limited 0.7% after some periods of fluctuation. Lower tariff applications have also been fluctuating but with an overall downward trend, and a 2.7% decrease from 2024 to 2025. Lower tariff providers are continuing to struggle with domestic students, as applicants are preferring medium or higher tariff providers for their courses.

Chart 5: UK Applicant Growth for 18 Year Olds by Tariff, 2013-2025

Source: UCAS

A similar pattern is evident when further isolating UK 18 year olds, although lower tariff providers dropped less sharply in this group, with a 2.0% decrease YoY.

Chart 6: Non-EU Applicant Growth for 18 Year Olds by Tariff, 2013-2025

Source: UCAS

Looking at non-EU applications, there is still a stark difference between higher tariff providers, and medium and lower tariff. Higher tariff providers showed a strong 6.5% YoY growth, while medium and lower tariff providers were both down by 1.9% and 10.1% respectively. Combined with the figures for domestic students, this suggests that difficulties may be ahead for medium or lower tariff universities if higher tariff providers continue to pull in more applications each year.

Chart 7: Non-EU and UK Acceptance to Applicant Ratio, 2014-2024

Source: UCAS

As the January data release indicates, non-EU growth in applications has been strong, particularly for countries such as China. However, applications don’t always lead to acceptances, as the acceptance/application ratios show. While UK students are relatively stable in this regard at around 80% acceptance rates, non-EU acceptances have been steadily declining for the last few years. This year it has dropped to 47%, down from over 51% in 2019. This aligns with anecdotal evidence of international students applying to multiple destinations; if this trend continues, we may see overall acceptances from international students stabilise or decline in the coming years, despite strong applicant figures.

Chart 8: Applicant Growth by City, 2014-2024

Source: UCAS

Going into further detail, there are large variations across cities for non-EU acceptances. Birmingham continues a strong growth trend reported since 2021, and Edinburgh has increased by 13.2% YoY. Leicester has reported a significant YoY decline, despite strong post-2020 growth, similar to Bristol where numbers also fell this year. While Nottingham has had a period of volatility, it is up YoY, and Sheffield has continued to struggle - acceptances were lower in 2024 than in 2014.

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